What is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a market where participants trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of future events. Each market has two sides (typically “Yes” and “No”), and the price of each side reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome.
Market Structure
Key Identifiers
Every market in Predexon has several identifiers:
| Identifier | Description | Example |
|---|
condition_id | Unique hash for the market condition | 0x1a2b3c... |
market_slug | Human-readable URL-safe identifier | will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election |
market_id | Internal numeric identifier | 12345 |
Outcomes (Sides)
Each market has exactly two outcomes:
{
"outcomes": [
{
"label": "Yes",
"token_id": "21742633143463906290569050155826241533067272736897614950488156847949938836455",
"price": 0.62
},
{
"label": "No",
"token_id": "48331043336612883890938759509493159234755048973500640148014422747788308965732",
"price": 0.38
}
]
}
Prices always sum to approximately 1.0 (there may be slight deviations due to market spread).
Token IDs
Token IDs are crucial for:
- Fetching candlestick data
- Getting market prices
- Tracking wallet positions
- Querying orderbooks
Market Lifecycle
| Status | Description |
|---|
open | Trading is active |
closed | Trading has stopped, awaiting resolution |
resolved | Outcome determined, winning side pays $1 |
Querying Markets
Basic Filtering
import requests
BASE_URL = "https://api.predexon.com"
# Get open markets only
response = requests.get(
f"{BASE_URL}/v1/polymarket/markets",
params={"status": "open"}
)
# Filter by price range (unlikely outcomes)
response = requests.get(
f"{BASE_URL}/v1/polymarket/markets",
params={
"min_price": 0.01,
"max_price": 0.10
}
)
# Filter by minimum volume
response = requests.get(
f"{BASE_URL}/v1/polymarket/markets",
params={"min_volume": 1000000} # $1M+ volume
)
Sorting Options
| Sort Value | Description |
|---|
volume | Total trading volume (default) |
open_interest | Current open interest |
price_desc | Highest price first |
price_asc | Lowest price first |
response = requests.get(
f"{BASE_URL}/v1/polymarket/markets",
params={"tags": ["politics", "elections"]}
)
politicscryptosportselectionseconomy
Market Metrics
Volume
Total Volume (total_volume_usd) represents the cumulative USD value of all trades in the market’s history.
# Get top 10 markets by volume
response = requests.get(
f"{BASE_URL}/v1/polymarket/markets",
params={
"sort": "volume",
"limit": 10
}
)
Open Interest
Open Interest (open_interest_total) is the total value of outstanding positions - tokens that have been minted but not yet redeemed.
# Get markets with high open interest
response = requests.get(
f"{BASE_URL}/v1/polymarket/markets",
params={
"sort": "open_interest",
"min_open_interest": 500000
}
)
Liquidity
Liquidity (liquidity_usd) measures the depth of the orderbook - how much can be traded without significant price impact.
Working with Multiple Markets
Batch Lookups
Query multiple markets by ID in a single request:
response = requests.get(
f"{BASE_URL}/v1/polymarket/markets",
params={
"condition_id": [
"0x1234...",
"0x5678...",
"0x9abc..."
]
}
)
Event-Based Grouping
Markets related to the same event share an event_slug:
# Get all markets for a specific event
response = requests.get(
f"{BASE_URL}/v1/polymarket/markets",
params={"event_slug": "2024-presidential-election"}
)
Next Steps
